Situation in Sudan (per 16 October)
- A sharp increase in violence against civilians and civilian infrastructure in El Fasher, North Darfur, has been reported, which is confirmed by satellite imagery.
- A sustained pattern of violence against certain communities by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) over September – October 2025 points to war crimes, according to an analysis by Yale School of Public Health.
- The city of El Fasher is now encircled by 57km of RSF earthen barriers, trapping civilians and cutting the city off from humanitarian aid.
- RSF drone strikes killed at least 8 people across multiple locations on Tuesday. In Ed Debba, Northern State, 5 people were killed, and several injured; 2 people were killed in Ed Babiker, East Nile State; and 1 doctor was killed in East Nile State, bringing the total of medical workers killed in the war to 233.
- An RSF drone strike in Abu Jubeiha, Nuba Mountains, killed 7 Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) soldiers including two senior officers on Monday.
- The RSF attacked Abu Gamra in North Darfur on Wednesday, burning dozens of houses and forcing residents to flee to Chad.
- Sudan’s Health Minister warned that the country’s ability to address epidemics is severely strained by lack of funding and disruptions in supplies. 70% of health facilities are non-operational due to the conflict, as cholera and dengue fever continue to spread.
Situation in South Sudan (per 16 October)
- Unconfirmed reports indicate that a new rebel group of around 300 persons may be mobilizing along South Sudan’s border with Sudan, in the Yoot area towards Abyei and at Warguet.
Situation in Kenya (per 16 October)
- Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga died of a heart attack on Wednesday. He died in southern India, where he was receiving medical treatment.
- Mourners gathered around his home in the capital of Nairobi, and marched through the city.
- Riots broke out in several areas following the news of Odinga’s death. Crowds overran security today at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport as Odinga’s body arrived, disrupting a planned state reception.
Situation in Ethiopia (per 16 October)
- The Commission of Inquiry on Tigray Genocide (CITG) published a new report titled “War-Induced Genocidal Sexual and Gender-Based Violence in Tigray, Ethiopia”.
- The report covers sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) perpetrated in the Tigray war between November 2020 and November 2022. The methods included a quantitative screening as well as in-depth interviews.
- The CITG found that almost 60% of the respondents had survived some form of SGBV, of which over half survived rape. 70% of the rape survivors were subject to gang rape.
- Over a quarter of the rape survivors willing to testify on this subject was subjected to the insertion of different types of foreign objects into their genitalia.
- The survivors report severe bodily and mental harm from the violence.
- The CITG states that there is sufficient evidence to conclude that there is reasonable ground to believe that the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), the Amhara Forces, and the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF) have committed genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes through heinous SGBVs against Tigrayan women and girls.
- Anti-war demonstrations were held in Mekelle, Tigray, this week.
- Two umbrella organisations of the Fano militia, Amhara Fano National Force (AFNF) and Amhara Fano Popular Organization (AFPO), reportedly announced yesterday that they have agreed to form a “united front”.
Regional & International Situation (per 16 October)
- The 19th annual consultative meeting between UN Security Council Members and the AU Peace and Security Council is taking place on Friday 17 October in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Preparatory meetings are taking place today.
- The consultative meeting will discuss among others the situation in the Horn of Africa, including the war in Sudan and salvaging the peace process in South Sudan.
- Sudan’s Sovereign Council’s head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan visited Egyptian president Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi in Cairo on Wednesday to discuss bilateral issues and the proposal by the Quad (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States) for a peace resolution.
- The World Food Program (WFP) warned that food assistance to millions will shrink or end by the end of the year as a result of funding cuts, with Sudan and South Sudan among the six most affected countries.
Refugee and Migration Situation (per 16 October)
- Interior ministers of the 27 member states met in Luxembourg to discuss migration, in particular the EU’s new migration pact, ahead of the European Council meeting in Brussels later this month.
- The agenda included a plan to send migrants whose asylum applications were unsuccessful to “return hubs” in non-EU countries, and a rule to ensure asylum decisions taken by one government are enforced by other governments.
- The EU migration pact is under pressure, as Poland announced it would not take part in the mandatory relocation of asylum seekers, nor would it compensate financially for it.
- Attacks on Sudanese refugee camps in eastern Chad , including Zaboud, Farchana, and Doki camps, killed at least 6 and injured several others. One body was found in a creek near Adré camp.
- The bodies of 61 refugees and migrants have been recovered along the coast line of western Libya, according to the Libyan government organization Emergency Medicine and Support Center.
- The Italian coast guard has launched an investigation into reports that Libyan authorities at sea fired at a migrant boat of 140 people over the weekend. The NGO Alarm Phone reports that two people have been killed. The shooting reportedly occurred in Maltese search and rescue waters.
Links of interest
RSF Intentionally Targeting Civilian Shelters in El-Fasher
War crimes alert as food runs out in besieged Sudan city
Renewed RSF drone strikes across Sudan
Sudan’s health minister says lack of funds hampers epidemic control
Control, choke points: The battle lines in southern Sudan
South Sudan officials report new rebel buildup near Sudan frontier
Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga dies of heart attack in India at 80
Chaos at JKIA as crowds overwhelm security during Raila’s arrival
Annual Joint Consultative Meeting between UN Security Council Members and the AU Peace and Security Council
Sudan’s Burhan, Egypt’s Sisi discuss peace roadmap in Cairo
From Afghanistan to South Sudan: shrinking aid, spiking hunger
Sudan, Russia to deepen cooperation as ministers attend Moscow energy week
Poland to be exempt from EU solidarity deal, as future of migration pact hangs in balance
RSF attacks North Darfur town, forcing civilians to flee to Chad
Libya: Bodies of 61 migrants recovered
Migrant boat allegedly attacked by Libyan officials in the Mediterranean
Disclaimer: All information in this Situation Report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.
Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peacebuilding, refugee protection, and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to the movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of universities, research organisations, civil society, and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and across Africa. The Situation Reports can be found here. To receive the situation report in your e-mail, click here. You can unsubscribe at any moment through the link at the bottom of each e-mail.