By Bahauddin Foizee*
DHAKA, Bangladesh | 10 December 2024 (IDN) — The watershed moment in Syria with the ousting of Bashar al-Assad has triggered a complex and high-stakes scramble for influence in a region already rife with instability. As Syrian rebel forces have seized Damascus, toppling over more than 50 years of Assad family’s autocratic rule, the implications for regional geopolitics are profound.
A newly fragmented Syria presents both opportunity and peril, as regional powers, each with divergent interests, race to reshape the country’s future.
Regional Rivalries: A Battle for Influence
In this rapidly evolving power vacuum, countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Turkey and Qatar will very soon start attempting to assert their influence. Each of these states has its own vision for Syria’s future, guided by broader regional ambitions and ideological leanings.
For Egypt and the Gulf monarchies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the overriding concern will be preventing the rise of Islamist groups they deem a threat to their political systems. Specifically, the Muslim Brotherhood, long seen as an existential threat by these states, will be at the center of their strategy.
Both Saudi Arabia and Egypt, along with the UAE, have been vocal in their opposition to any group affiliated with the Brotherhood or those espousing similar ideological leanings. In the post-Assad landscape, they will likely back rebel factions that can check the influence of these Islamist groups, ensuring that Syria’s future more aligned with their own authoritarian models, which are hostile to political Islam.
On the other hand, Turkey and Qatar, which have long supported the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates, will work to ensure that Syria’s political future accommodates groups sympathetic to their cause.
Turkey, already heavily involved in the Syrian conflict and keen on countering Kurdish influence, will push for a post-Assad Syria that is friendly to its interests. Ankara’s backing of rebel factions with Islamist leanings will be key in shaping the future trajectory of Syrian politics, which may involve an uneasy coalition of Islamist and nationalist forces that align more closely with Turkey’s regional goals.
Israel’s Security Interests: Covert Operations and Syria’s Fragmentation
Israel, having spent years trying to weaken the Assad regime and its allies, especially Iran and Hezbollah, will welcome the collapse of Assad’s rule. Israel will likely continue its covert operations in Syria, targeting any remaining Iranian and Hezbollah assets as well as any rebel factions it perceives as a threat.
Israel has already signaled its intention to maintain a visible and strategic military presence in the region, especially along the Golan Heights and in areas near the Syrian border. Israel’s goal will be to ensure that no single force, whether a rebel faction or a pro-Iranian proxy, can dominate Syria and pose a direct threat to Israeli security.
Accordingly, Israel’s primary goal after the fall of Assad would be the ongoing fragmentation of the country. A divided Syria, with competing rebel factions and no strong central government, serves Israel’s strategic interests, as it avoids the consolidation of a unified and hostile neighbor on its border.
U.S. Pursuit of Democracy in Syria
The U.S.’s objectives in Syria revolve around maintaining a foothold in the region and advancing its ideological goals. In particular, Washington has consistently supported Kurdish-led forces, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which it sees as a counterbalance to ISIS and other adversarial forces. These groups are also positioned as important U.S. allies in the broader effort to promote liberal values and establish democracy in Syria and the Middle East.
However, the U.S. faces a difficult balancing act. While it has long advocated for a post-Assad Syria governed by democratic principles, the presence of Islamist factions, such as those aligned with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, complicates this vision. Washington will likely continue to back those forces it deems most likely to resist Islamism, even if those forces, like the SDF, are viewed as terrorists by regional players such as Turkey.
The future of U.S. involvement in Syria will be shaped by the need to prevent the resurgence of ISIS and similar groups. With Assad out of the picture and Russia distracted by the ongoing war in Ukraine, the U.S. may seek to strengthen its influence over the Syrian political process, but it will be hampered by the complexity of dealing with a patchwork of militias, regional players and global powers all vying for control.
Daunting and Fragile Road to Reconstruction
As celebrations in Damascus give way to the sobering realities of post-Assad Syria, the challenges ahead are immense. With competing factions, sectarian divides and the looming specter of groups like ISIS, the path to stability will be long and fraught with obstacles.
Rebuilding the country will require not just military victory but economic reconstruction, social reconciliation and political transition. The international community, particularly Western nations, will likely be called upon to provide aid and assistance in Syria’s rebuilding efforts.
However, this assistance will be highly contingent on the political direction the country takes. Will Syria lean towards the liberal values championed by the West, or will it move toward Islamist governance? How the new Syrian leadership, likely to be dominated by HTS or similar groups, navigates this question will be crucial.
Sanctions, Diplomacy and Alliances in the New Reality
One of the most pressing questions is how the international community will engage with Syria’s new rulers. The Western powers, which have long shunned Assad, will have to grapple with the reality that many of the factions now in control of Syria, especially those linked to HTS, are considered terrorist organizations by the U.S. and its allies.
A significant challenge will be determining how to engage with a new Syria while balancing the need for stabilization with the desire to avoid empowering forces that the U.S. and its allies view as terrorists.
The geopolitical contest will also involve Russia and Iran, whose influence in Syria has been severely weakened by the fall of Assad. Russia, bogged down by the war in Ukraine, will be unable to project power in Syria as it once did. Iran, similarly, has seen its position erode with the departure of Assad.
In Syria, the future of Russia and Iran will depend on their ability to recalibrate their strategies, possibly by backing certain rebel factions or negotiating with new political authorities in Damascus.
Battle for Syria’s Future is Far from Over
While the fall of Assad marks a historic moment, the true test of Syria’s future will be how the country rebuilds politically, economically and socially. Regional and global players are positioning themselves to shape the outcome, with each having a stake in what comes next.
What is clear, however, is that the road ahead will be turbulent, with power struggles both within Syria and across the Middle East. In the end, Syria’s fate will be shaped not only by its own people but by the shifting dynamics of regional and international politics.
This article was originally published on Oped Column Syndication.
*Bahauddin Foizee is a columnist and risk analyst whose insights have been published in The Diplomat, The National Interest, Asia Times, Tribune Content Agency, Geopolitical Monitor, and the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), among others. [IDN-InDepthNews]
An image of Syrian President Bashar Assad, riddled with bullets. Source: The Economic Times.
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