From the Asia Society in New York
NEW YORK | 8 November 2024 (IDN) — Asia Society Policy Institute experts comment on the news that Donald Trump has won the 2024 U.S. election and what it means for Asia.
Daniel Russel – Vice President, International Security and Diplomacy
The uncertainty of the election now gives way to the unpredictability of American foreign policy. Asian countries are bracing for sudden shifts and unorthodox approaches that could disrupt regional dynamics.
America’s Asian allies anticipate a shift from strategic cooperation to more quid pro quo transactions, where support from Washington may now hinge on the next president’s assessment of a “return on investment”
Donald Trump’s deal-oriented nationalism presents both risks and opportunities for Asian governments—some may find room to negotiate favorable bilateral deals, while others face heightened insecurities, especially in the face of China’s assertive behavior.
President-elect Trump’s emphasis on burden-sharing may accelerate moves by Asian partners toward greater self-reliance in defense, but it may also incentivize a more conciliatory approach to China to adjust to a perceived erosion of U.S. commitments.
Regarding China:
The return to Trump likely means renewed tariffs, tougher trade terms, and restrictions on Chinese technology rooted in his ‘America First’ ethos. Beijing no doubt expects pressure on multiple fronts, but with high-stakes economic brinkmanship as a centerpiece. The Trump administration can be expected to use massive tariffs and other forms of economic leverage in an effort to exploit vulnerabilities in Beijing’s slower-growing economy.
While Trump may weaken U.S. commitments to Asian allies, China is wary of his penchant for sudden confrontational moves. This complicates Beijing’s strategy for dealing with Taiwan, the Philippines, as well as North Korea.
Trump began his first term as an enthusiastic admirer of Xi Jinping, before levying tariffs and then vilifying Beijing during the pandemic. So, Beijing is likely to approach the President-elect with caution—probing to ascertain which Trump to expect and where there may be opportunities to exploit. In the meantime, we should expect Beijing to hype the prospect of erratic and self-interested American isolationism in an effort to peel off American allies and to intimidate Taiwan.
Wendy Cutler – Vice President and Managing Director, ASPI Washington, D.C. Office
Our trading partners, including those from Asia, will need to prepare for a renewed spotlight on trade imbalances and the imposition of tariffs. Each will need to decide how to best respond, whether through a negotiated settlement or retaliatory steps. It’s going to test many of our close and evolving relationships with Asian partners, at a time when China is also courting them to further integrate into their supply chains.
Rorry Daniels – Managing Director, ASPI, and Senior Fellow, Center for China Analysis
Both Beijing and Taipei will be looking for reassurance that the incoming Trump administration will have a consistent Taiwan policy. If the second Trump administration follows the first, Trump’s key political advisors will be ok with accepting greater risk of escalation or conflict in order to throw their weight behind Taipei. The question moving forward is how leaders in Washington, Beijing and Taipei manage that risk under the current circumstances, with the PLA building capacity for a fight in the Taiwan Strait and with U.S.-China relations at a continued low ebb. A second question is the resolve of Trump himself to commit U.S. military resources to a Taiwan effort when he has consistently criticized the U.S. for taking on too much military responsibility in the world.
Beijing is watching closely to see how President-elect Trump handles the Taiwan issue in his congratulatory calls and messages. Accepting a call from Lai Ching-te, for example, as Trump accepted one from Tsai Ing-wen after his 2016 election, would set off alarms and prompt a calibrated, likely military, response.
The countries of Asia have seen this film before and will adjust accordingly. Expect to see an intensification of the cooperation trends among U.S. allies. On the one hand, bilateral and minilateral cooperation among many U.S. allies and partners in the region will deepen and strengthen to counterbalance a sense of U.S. withdrawal; on the other hand, among allies who need the U.S. to play a bridging role—like Japan and South Korea—strategic drifts will widen.
Farwa Aamer – Director of South Asia Initiatives
Congratulations from South Asia are flowing in for President-elect Trump, underscoring the region’s pragmatic approach: a willingness to work with any U.S. leader if it means continuity and, hopefully, predictability—but the latter could be anything but guaranteed.
Trump’s re-election will likely continue the U.S.-India strategic partnership, buoyed by his rapport with PM Modi from his previous term. We may see a more assertive U.S. focus on countering China, one of the main factors that has drawn the U.S. and India closer over the years. However, this could shape into a high-stakes, high-expectation relationship, with greater emphasis on burden sharing. Similarly, any shifts in U.S. policy toward China could add new complexities, requiring India, which has its own China challenge, to navigate carefully to balance its regional and global priorities.
While many in South Asia welcome the chance to deepen ties, Trump’s past policies of tariffs and unilateral deals serve as a reminder that economic partnership may come with a cost. For India especially, securing benefits while preserving strategic autonomy will be a high-wire act. Trade and immigration will remain as crucial issue areas within the bilateral equation.
With a return to ‘America First,’ South Asia will need a clear-eyed approach, recognizing that every deal with the U.S. now could carry a price tag. For nations here, the coming years will mean carefully balancing aspirations with transactional realities.
Kate Logan – Director of China Climate Hub and Climate Diplomacy
Trump’s election is all but guaranteed to obliterate any constructive channels for official US-China engagement that the Biden administration worked so hard to restore — and at the top of that list is cooperation on climate change, which Trump calls a “Chinese hoax.” The sheer uncertainty of Trump’s foreign policy and likelihood of massive tariffs on Chinese goods will also complicate China’s efforts to decarbonize while navigating grave economic challenges.
China’s leadership now faces a stark choice. With China likely to vocally reiterate its support for multilateral climate action, China could position fulfilling its minimum commitments on climate as leadership in the US’s void. But this would be a missed opportunity for China to seize on Trump’s victory as a boon for its booming clean technology sectors and solidify its role as a good faith global leader on climate.
It is up to the rest of the world — from the EU to climate vulnerable nations — to maintain high pressure on China to fulfill its responsibility to the world on substantive climate action. Against the backdrop of climate finance negotiations at COP29, this will include China demonstrating to the rest of the developing world that it is willing to grow and improve its financial support for their climate action.
Taylah Bland – Senior Program Officer for the China Climate Hub, Fellow on Climate and the Environment with the Center for China Analysis
Trump’s victory presents an uncertain path for climate action, with potential implications for global leadership dynamics—especially as it requires China to step up and further assert its role in addressing climate challenges. Nevertheless, the need to advance toward the Paris Agreement’s climate goals remains critical, albeit through potentially new strategies.
Although US-China climate cooperation faces a period of uncertainty, the outcome underscores the importance of exploring alternative avenues for bilateral progress. Strengthening sub-national partnerships or focusing on shared efforts in climate adaptation and resilience could provide pathways for continued collaboration.
Betty Wang – Senior Program Officer of Climate
A second Trump administration would likely see the U.S. exit the Paris Agreement once again and cut back on international climate funding, a shift that would send ripples across Asia, where nations rely on climate finance and technology partnerships. With diminished U.S. leadership, countries like Japan, South Korea, and others may need to bolster their own commitments and potentially turn to the EU for cooperative frameworks. Such an absence of U.S. engagement creates long-term uncertainty, slowing the international collaboration needed to meet crucial climate targets.
A renewed Trump presidency would likely stall formal U.S.-China climate cooperation, potentially halting current coordinated efforts on critical issues like energy transition and methane reduction. This shift risks delaying essential emissions cuts, weakening the urgency and scale required to meet international climate goals. Without official channels, the world’s two largest emitters may lose valuable momentum since the Sunnyland Statement, rolling back to track-two engagements or subnational partnerships as seen in the first Trump administration. With reduced U.S. involvement, the world may also increasingly look to China to step up as a leader in global climate action.
Meghan Murphy – Schwarzman Fellow
Southeast Asia will find itself in a mixed position following the return of a Trump presidency. Southeast Asia can expect to be mostly ignored by an isolationist President Trump who focuses more on domestic policy and big ticket international relations like the U.S.-China relationship, rather than small-country groupings. However, the region will have heightened anxieties over how a more volatile regime will treat delicate geopolitical hotspots such as the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. In response to the new administration, leaders may choose to focus on enhancing regional relationships within ASEAN, and will keep an eye out for how a possible trade war between the United States and China could result in more businesses fleeing China for the more stable ASEAN. [IDN-InDepthNews]
Image: Asian Society
