By Dr Palitha Kohona
Former Permanent Representative of Sri Lanka to the United Nations, and more recently, Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Read Part 1 here: https://indepthnews.net/sri-lanka-daunting-foreign-policy-options-for-a-new-administration-part-1/
COLOMBO, Sri Lanka | 7 November 2024 (IDN) — The almost imperceptible emergence of China as a global economic and military giant with critical interests in the Indian Ocean region has surprised many and disrupted historical relationships and loyalties.
China’s economic emergence is spectacular. Its massive foreign reserves, accumulated without much fuss over a short period of time, are being deployed to fund its Belt and Road Initiative conceived consistent with its publicly and emphatically articulated objective of creating a future of common prosperity for the region and beyond. China is also a dominant member of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates joined the BRICS in 2024. Saudi Arabia is likely to join next) which has expanded rapidly to encompass over 31.5 of global GDP in 2020 with 27 new countries, including Sri Lanka, lining up to join it. India is a founding member of the BRICS. It is now backed up by the BRICS bank, the NDB (New Development Bank).
China is a leading light in the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), of which India is also a founding member. The Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank established by China is becoming a major force in the banking world. China’s growing economic clout and proactive soft power outreach is causing considerable disconcert among Western powers, especially the US, which have been used to a world dominated by themselves.
During the terrorist conflict in Sri Lanka, when traditional Western suppliers equivocated about providing military equipment to Sri Lanka, China stepped up to the plate and was unstinting in its assistance. Similarly, on the conclusion of the conflict, it was China which was willing to fund Sri Lanka’s reconstruction efforts. China has continued to provide financing and emergency assistance to Sri Lanka.
While the Chinese involvement in the Sri Lankan economy has ballooned in recent years, it has caused resentment in the West and in India. Chinese investments would be vital for Sri Lanka’s economic advancement and no other partner would seem to possess a similar enthusiasm or ability. Sri Lanka must now plot a judicious course and manage perceptions so that the strategic balance in the region would not be impacted or misread.
Experience as a non-aligned country
Sri Lanka has years of experience as a non-aligned country in maintaining a nuanced international posture and, now again, it must ensure that the economic participation of China in the country would not lead to strategic dominance or even perceptions of such dominance. The welcoming door should be kept open to other countries also to participate in Sri Lanka’s economy while all external participants must adhere to the requirements of Lanka’s national and sovereign prerequisites. For countries like Sri Lanka, China’s BRI and the NDB, judiciously managed, could provide the resources to leap frog from lower middle income status to a higher level in a short period of time.
Sri Lanka, sitting at the hub of the ancient maritime Silk Route, has embraced the BRI concept at the highest levels. From the President and the Prime Minister downward, the BRI has been enthusiastically welcomed by the Sri Lankan leadership.
Today, China is the biggest consumer market in the world (valued at over $750 billion dollars) and Sri Lanka needs to implement a concerted plan to access and benefit from it. The ASEANs, Australia and NZ have been hugely successful in accessing and benefitting from this enormous market.
It is to be noted that China has never formally identified Sri Lanka as a strategic necessity for the BRI or for advancing its position as a global power. Unfortunately some Indian and Western commentators have tended to do so on spurious evidence.
Policy makers elsewhere must also worry sometimes about Sri Lanka’s potential, if it slips into the Western camp, to be used to disrupt China’s vital energy supplies from the Middle East and Africa. Almost 47% of China’s crude oil needs come from the Middle East.
China has again begun to emphasise its ancient religious links in the region and has been restoring places of worship damaged in the Cultural Revolution. This development also creates a comfort level among the countries of the Indian Ocean region, which, while sharing a broadly similar religious tradition with China, also have feared the secular robustness of the Communist Party that rules China. Religious commonalities could be a useful bridge to link the Chinese people with Sri Lanka, including enhancing bilateral tourism. The hometown of the traveller monk, Fa Xian, could become the hub for adventure travel to the region. China has also actively established Confucius societies in the countries of the region and beyond as part of its soft power outreach.
The West and the USA
The US and the West continue to be an important factor for Sri Lankan policy makers and must receive their fair share of attention. Links, economic, social, political, educational, etc., developed since colonial times, some bordering on the servile, have been significant and will remain a major consideration. Many Western countries and their embassies have developed deep rooted relations with Sri Lankan institutions and the local NGO community.
The bulk of Sri Lanka’s exports go to the West. Many children of the country’s elite study in the West.
Western Governments have pushed democracy and human rights to flail developing country governments, including Sri Lanka. Their selective approach, which excuses the indiscriminate assaults on civilian concentrations by some while berating others for much less, has caused more than a few to question their motives.
Increasingly, popular pressure is encouraging governments in the West to restrict imports that do not comply with sustainable production requirements. Trade sanctions have been employed against some for apparently not complying with global standards. Green and related pressures on the EU parliament could expedite this movement. The environment could become the next excuse for imposing restrictions on developing countries.
Sri Lanka will need to appreciate the complex pressures on the thinking of Western policymakers and, where necessary, build coalitions with like-minded countries to deal with the West. There is a clear need to develop better and equal relations of substance with the West.
A carefully calibrated cultivation of relations, managed by informed hands would be necessary. During the terrorist inspired conflict in Sri Lanka, and immediately afterwards, China began to dominate the investment arena in Sri Lanka.
Subsequently, the US stepped in with offers for infrastructure development, including railways, through the Millennium Challenge Account but with onerous attendant conditionalities. Japan was also part of the group of countries extending a helping hand until its engagement in the LRT initiative was terminated abruptly. It is a good time now to re engage actively with Japan. Japan was Sri Lanka’s main development partner historically until overtaken by China. There is much historical goodwill for Sri Lanka in Japan. Japan, appropriately managed, will remain a good friend. The USA, and Australia have proposed much smaller development initiatives to the countries of the region.
The US is a challenging counterpart to engage, with extensive and professional resources and a globally networked footprint. Given the impact of Congress on policymaking, serious contacts must be established with the Congress to be abreast of their sensitivities.
US policymaking is influenced significantly by domestic pressure groups. The role of the Sri Lankan expatriate community cannot be underestimated. Entities such as the Jewish lobby, the human rights NGOs and the environment groups have considerable sway, sometimes excessive, in Congress.
The pressures that are helping to formulate attitudes in the West need to be better understood. Track two relations need to be developed further. Better relations with legislatures is essential. A stronger and more effective presence and a dedicated professional lobbying mechanism in Washington and other Western capitals may help to manage these pressures and the national approach could be more refined. [IDN-InDepthNews]
Image source: Department of Government Information, Sr Lanka.
