Image by RM Photography. Women carrying water on their heads, near the city of Tanzania, Dar Es Salaam. - Photo: 2024

World Social Development Progress Under Threat

By Ramesh Jaura

BERLIN  | 25 October 2024 (IDN) — In view of the converging crises threatening world social development, the United Nations General Assembly decided earlier this year to convene the “Second World Summit for Social Development” in 2025, which would address gaps and recommit to the principles outlined in the 1995 Copenhagen Declaration on Social Development and Programme of Action and give momentum towards the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The social summit will be taking place almost 30 years after the historic first World Summit For Social Development, where heads of state and government set out an ambitious common vision of social development aimed at social justice, solidarity, harmony and equality within and among countries. The Summit adopted the 1995 Copenhagen Declaration and Programme of Action to place people at the centre of development, with 10 commitments including eradication poverty, reducing inequality, promoting full employment and social inclusion.

Although acknowledging the progress made since 1995, the resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly expresses serious concern that advancements have been slow and uneven, with significant gaps still existing. The 2025 social summit aims to reinvigorate support for the commitments made in Copenhagen, while also aligning with the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

In preparation for the social summit, the resolution requires the President of the UN General Assembly to appoint two co-facilitators — one from a developing nation and one from a developed country — the intergovernmental preparatory process. Their main responsibility will be to shape both the summit’s procedures and its outcome document, which is described as ” a short and concise political declaration adopted by consensus,” which, “should have a social development approach and give momentum towards the implementation of the 2030 Agenda.”

The resolution was co-sponsored by Belgium, Chile, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Kazakhstan, Montenegro, Morocco, Portugal, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Viet Nam and Zambia. After the submission of the draft resolution, the following countries also became co-sponsors: Andorra, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Botswana, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, China, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Equatorial Guinea, Eswatini, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lesotho, Luxembourg, Malawi, Maldives, Malta, Monaco, Mozambique, Netherlands (Kingdom of the), North Macedonia, Poland, Republic of Moldova, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Togo, Türkiye, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Since the resolution has been approved, focus is shifting to developing a roadmap to ensure the success of the social summit in mobilizing collective action on the world’s most urgent social issues.

But a review of the crises is since 1995 is indispensable to finding new ways.

For example, the COVID-19 pandemic initiated a sharp reversal in progress, with headline impacts such as the first increase of the global extreme poverty rate in 20 years. While these numbers are slowly returning to pre-pandemic levels, they remain stubbornly high in many low-income countries, increasing the likelihood of households trapped in poverty. Hunger and malnutrition have risen steadily, subjecting infants and children with the threat of lasting damage to health and normal cognitive growth, and consequently to social development.

Even as the pandemic ebbed, spillovers from the war in Ukraine, and droughts and floods caused by climate change created additional threats to food security, as did unexpectedly high inflation in many countries. Divergent recoveries in employment — with developing countries lagging behind developed ones — are yet another indicator of lasting impacts on social development trends. Income inequalities have risen in many countries, including in developing countries with pre-existing high levels of inequality. Between-country inequality, yet another indicator of disparity, rose steadily (by about 1.6 per cent since the onset of the pandemic) and has remained elevated ever since.

A single statistic that expresses the potentially persistent impact of successive crises is the 2023 projection of where global output will be in 2030, compared to where it was expected to be at the end of 2019: a value that is lower by 7.3 per cent, representing a cumulative output loss of over $50 trillion, and an indication of lost opportunities for social development. Economic slowdowns have contributed to shrinking fiscal space and debt distress that further perpetuate impacts, even as unanticipated risk factors, such as inflation and “higher-for-longer” interest rates in developed economies, have worsened prospects around the world, especially for the poor and vulnerable.

There is greater knowledge about the structural drivers of shocks and crises, but most countries are underprepared, according to the latest World Social Report released on 17 October.

The recent confluence of crises has presented new evidence of how shocks impact social development, drawing from rich new data sources, and substantially adding to an extensive body of cross-disciplinary research from across the world. Across disciplines, assessments are also confirming that we live in a period where shocks are becoming more likely.

For example, the probability of a pandemic occurring in any given year is estimated to be progressively increasing due to the rise in disease emergence rates as human activities further encroach on animal habitats. As global warming continues, forecasters are expressing high confidence that every region in the world will experience increasingly concurrent and multiple changes through numerous climate impact channels. Gradually worsening circumstances could include prolonged drought, or more intense and frequent extreme weather events such as hurricanes. Such events could increase threats to agricultural production and food security, among others. Various scenarios highlight systemic risks to global financial stability.

Shocks that might have previously remained relatively contained can now be propagated rapidly through globally interconnected networks such as those in trade, finance and transport. The extent, density and other characteristics of these networks, such as the relative importance of each network participant, help determine how shocks are disseminated and amplified into crises. Extensive interconnections also offer pathways for shocks to exert influence across systems, further magnifying impacts as crises originating in one sector spill over into others.

Despite the increased understanding of both mechanisms and impacts, we remain underprepared. For instance, data shows that coverage under early warning systems remains patchy. Many remain entirely outside the reach of social protection, lacking access to an essential buffer against shocks. Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), associated with greater coping capacities, remains markedly inadequate. Finally, translating the insights of network science into improving how networks are governed to boost resilience remains a work in progress. [IDN-InDepthNews]

Image by RM Photography. Women carrying water on their heads, near the city of Tanzania, Dar Es Salaam.

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