By Simone Galimberti*
KATHMANDU, Nepal | 20 December 2024 (IDN) — What should we expect from the Malaysia’s Chairmanship of ASEAN in 2025?
After several years of hibernation in which the regional bloc did not certainly sparkle in terms of vitality and creativity, will Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia be able to resuscitate an almost moribund body?
The incoming year, let’s not forget, is supposed to be a groundbreaking period for ASEAN as the regional mechanism is going to launch its ASEAN Community Vision 2045. This should be a massive undertaking, at least in theory, because we are talking about the blueprint that is going to shape the future of South East Asia for the next 2025.
Will Malaysia and its peer nations rise to the challenge?
I seriously doubt it, but at least the upcoming Chairmanship is trying to shuffle the cards a bit and some interesting, I would say, unusual developments are coming from Putrajaya on this regard.
While they might not be enough to drastically rethink and re-launch the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 as a bold and far-sighted document that could improve the lives of the millions of citizens living in the region, at least the Prime Minister is trying something unconventional.
Ibrahim announced the appointment of former Thaksin Shinawatra, the controversial former PM of Thailand, as his informal advisor for the upcoming Malaysia’s Chairmanship of ASEAN.
What should be made of this decision?
Does Ibrahim really have the ambition and determination to go against the usual business as usual and the persistent “ASEAN Model” and try to come up with a new framework?
While this might prove to be a controversial move, perhaps he has the right intent, especially because, as reported by The Star, he has declared that he will also set up an informal group of former ASEAN leaders, of which Thaksin will be part of.
So, the guess is if the controversial former prime minister of Thailand is in, then, Lee Hsien Loong, the former Prime Minister of Singapore, should be also included in this group. Possibly other experienced former heads of state and governments and former foreign ministers could join.
The decision of establishing such mechanism, even if entirely informal and symbolic in its substance, is a breath of fresh development for a static and rigid bloc like ASEAN. In many ways we should call Ibrahim’s decision a real innovation.
Complex
The underlying tribulations of ASEAN are complex to deal with but at the same time, are simple, almost obvious to understand: the people of the region do not care about it. They are utterly disinterested about it and disinvested from it no matter the official polls or surveys that show otherwise.
There have been a lot of criticisms about the remoteness, aloofness and abstruse nature of the whole regional mechanism. Therefore, the Malaysian Prime Minister has a straight forward task ahead of him, one that won’t be easy to tackle: revitalizing the whole ASEAN project.
Will he prove of being capable of generating some interest among the general people that ASEAN is a long term project worthy to follow and valuable enough to believe in?
This conundrum could be superficially dismissed by the insiders, those working within the ASEAN system. After all, they might argue, this is not a real problem.
“The fact that all major global powers are vying to engage with us”, their logic might explain, “is a living proof of the ASEAN’s indispensability and relevance”. Yet is this thinking really predicated on a real or just perceived importance of the bloc?
While it is undeniable that in the last years a lot of talks about ASEAN’s centrality and the fact that all major nations, including the EU, have shown a great deal of interest for the group, is it really so essential and crucial?
How much are the decisions taken by its leaders during their summits, the so called, ASEAN Leaders’ Declarations, so long and so complex to understand, relevant? How much are such documents transformative for the people of the region?
Let’s hypothetically imagine that, from tomorrow onwards, none of these declarations would be issued. Would the people of South East Asia notice it? How tragically different would their lives be?
What if ASEAN disappeared tomorrow? Will the people of the region even realize it? I have my skepticism and I am probably not the only one.
And if this were the case, then wouldn’t be preposterous also to claim ASEAN’s indispensability in the unfolding global geopolitics? To me, ASEAN is living on a fake aura of respectability that does not correspond to reality.
Take for example Myanmar where the group has been incapable of defusing a bloody civil war. Then, an example, what’s is occurring in the South China Sea.
This is a high risk, complex geopolitical conundrum where the Philippines is isolated in their ongoing maritime disputes with China. That’s why the PM has a mammoth year ahead in terms of Malaysia’s Chairmanship of the bloc.
In particular, I see two daunting challenges before him.
On the one hand, creating a new narrative for the whole ASEAN and such new construct should primarily focus on engaging and involving the citizenry of the region.
With only one year at the helm of the bloc, it is hardly possible imagining the PM being able to craft a new meaning of ASEAN in such a compelling way that the people of the region will start taking notice of it.
On the other hand, he will have to strive to make ASEAN more cohesive and united not through hollow statements and empty words but in real deeds. This means tackling some of the most sensitive wedges that do exist among ASEAN’s members, differences that are both practical in nature but also ideological.
That’s why there is high probability that upcoming ASEAN Community Vision 2045, a project that was never explained to the people of the region, will end being the usual ASEAN document, rich in vagueness and big words but deprived of real ambition.
Instead, the citizens of all the ASEAN members deserve something better, tangible outcomes and benefits from this process of regional cooperation.
Will the PM be up to the job? The plain answer is that he probably will not.
But nevertheless, all those who care of a prosperous South East Asia should wish him and his new “informal” advisors all the best for the upcoming year.
*Simone Galimberti writes about the SDGs, youth-centred policy-making and a stronger and better United Nations.
Photo: Delegates from Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, gathered at the 50th ASEAN Summit in Melbourne in March 2024. Source: Britannica