By P.I. Gomes
The writer is former Secretary-General, Organisation of African, Caribbean & Pacific States (OACPS), Brussels, Belgium.
PORT OF SPAIN, Trinidad and Tobago | 31 January 2025 (IDN) — On 10 January 2025, Nicolas Maduro was bestowed with the Presidential sash of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela granting him a third 6-year term, 2025 -2031. However admirably adorned was the Legislative Palace for the event, with top brass of Generals and high-ranking Army Officers seated in the front row, outside on the streets, were thousands of protesters. But the government also ensured that gangs of Chavistas, as Maduro’s supporters are known, were gathered in large numbers and waving flags with cries of “Long live the Bolivarian revolution”!
Despite the grand display, the occasion marked the Associated Press (AP) referred to as the “increasingly repressive rule in the face of renewed protest” (AP, Caracas, 10 January 2025). This had become more pronounced in the lead-up to and after the Presidential elections of 28 July 2024, mainly led by a Unitary Platform alliance.
Since the dynamic and charismatic Maria Corina Machado as its leader was banned as a candidate in the elections and forced to go into hiding, the pro-democracy alliance endorsed Edmundo Gonzalez to be their Presidential candidate. As the results of the elections revealed in computer tally sheets collected from 85% of electronic voting machines, Maduro had been defeated by more than a two-thirds margin in favour of Gonzalez.
Fraudulent claims by Maduro of victory at the elections were challenged by massive demonstrations and demands for the results to be publicly announced, giving rise to both Brazil’s President Lula DaSilva and Colombia’s Gustava refusing to regard Maduro as President-elect and declining to attend the latter’s inauguration. The growing isolation of Maduro, among Latin American leaders, was obvious when only two Presidents, Cuba and Nicaragua, attended the swearing-in ceremony on 10 January 2025.
Ironically with another 6-year term to Maduro, was a US$ 25 million reward for his arrest and that of his Ministers for the Interior and Defence, whom the Biden administration charged for “narco-terrorism” by which the USA is massively inundated by illegal drugs, weapons and gold smuggled by Maduro’s criminal enterprise regime.
Embattled Maduro, Unpredictable Trump & Guyana’s Unease of Annexation
Infuriated by isolation of Latin American leaders and blatant condemnation from US and European governments, Maduro reacted in rage against US President Biden, who recognised Eduardo Gonzalez-Urrutia as President-elect. This was followed by the unpredictable Donald Trump, whose administration is likely to stop buying oil from Venezuela, since according to Trump, Venezuela once “a great country 20 years ago, now it’s a mess.”
In his first term, Trump had treated Maduro’s 2018 re-election as fraudulent and called him a “dictator” while offering a deal for Maduro to quit office. But it was not realised by 2020 when Trump departed office. Understandably, Maduro is concerned whether Trump may increase sanctions and engineer military action for regime change.
However, while Chevron, major US-owned oil operator, continues in Venezuela, Maduro see this as protection; and has taken an opportunity to appease Trump by declaring readiness to accept undocumented Venezuelan migrants. While this satisfies mass deportation by President Trump, it may be only partial relief for an embattled Maduro, who could contemplate a deal with Trump for “cheap” Venezuelan oil.
Turning attention internally, Maduro conscious of his fraudulent re-election, has whipped up diversionary tactics to inflame national sentiment on the decades-long claim by Venezuela to the oil and mineral-rich territory of neighbouring Guyana, inhabited by indigenous peoples of Guyana. Broad popular sentiment favouring this claim proves to be a weapon Maduro can use as an opportunity warrants.
Thus, on 7 January 2025, three days prior to his Presidential inauguration, Maduro declared elections would be held to name a Governor for the disputed region that the Venezuelan National Assembly had previously named “Guayana Esequiba” as “Zona Reclamacion” and is displayed in maps of Venezuela. Already a process has begun to register Guyanese dwelling in the Essequibo region and provide Venezuelan ID.
Beyond the proposed elections, Venezuelan armed forces constructed a fixed bridge over a river connecting the Venezuela mainland with a portion of an island jointly occupied by Guyana and Venezuela. This is to provide rapid access for armed personnel and equipment into Guyana’s border region, as and when needed.
Indeed, these actions blatantly disregard the Declaration of 14 December 2023 signed by the Presidents of Venezuela and Guyana to de-escalate tensions and establish a mechanism for engagements by Foreign Ministers to resolve relevant issues. That de-escalation had been demanded also by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on 1 December 2023 directing both Venezuela and Guyana to “refrain from any action … to aggravate or extend the dispute…”
Such events so strikingly strident—convening elections in the disputed area, building a bridge to enable movement of military personnel and equipment and callously disregarding the ICJ’s order—give little hope that rule of law and diplomacy, rather than armed confrontation, are accepted by Venezuela, to desist from annexation of Guyana’s territory.
The prevailing circumstances lead me once again to plead for urgent, sustained and united, nation-wide actions for public awareness as well as joint programmes with indigenous communities as main inhabitants of the disputed region and thereby enhance their livelihoods and culture as they so determine. [IDN-InDepthNews]
Photo: Despite protests and accusations of manipulation, Nicolás Maduro was sworn in as Venezuelan president. Source: ZDF (Second German Television)
