By Kester Kenn Klomegah*
MOSCOW | 12 May 2025 (IDN) — How vital is Thomas Malthus’ population theory today? Malthus, an English cleric and scholar, published this theory in his 1798 writings, An Essay on the Principle of Population. He believed that exponential population growth could lead to unprecedented pressure on the land and create natural disasters such as floods and earthquakes and human-made actions such as wars and famines. The global population would not explode as Malthus had predicted during his time.
How critical is the Malthusian theory of population growth in today’s world? In the next 5,000 years, the global population would not explode as he predicted as an academic and demography expert. With its 1.5 billion people, China is emerging as an economic superpower. Its unchallengeable superpower status is tactfully attributed to the large population manpower behind economic feats worldwide, a hidden chapter that Russians have not yet read. China has even abandoned its one-child policy to drive the population faster and is ready to use human resources combined with financial resources and technology to increase production. The former Soviet space grossly lacks human resources, for instance, Kazakhstan’s 20.7 million as of the first quarter of 2025 and the huge Far East and Siberian regions of the Russian Federation.
Kazakhstan, officially the Republic of Kazakhstan, is a landlocked country primarily in central Asia, with a small portion in Eastern Europe. Kyrgyzstan is a central Asian country with a rich and diverse cultural heritage. The current population of Kyrgyzstan is 7.2 million, and both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan share borders with China. With the geopolitical situation shattering the world’s economy and introducing the United States’ so-called trade tariffs, China is steadily prioritizing its production facilities in Russia’s Far East, the vast region already operating under incentives in the Special Economic Zones. China and Russia coincidentally share similar aspirations of creating a ‘multipolar’ economic architecture. In strategic terms, China supports the fixation of the northern transport corridor that allows its multitude of products to flow into European markets.
Russia experiences demographic problems. According to reports, labour shortage gripped the country. It is also struggling with rising global economic tensions, the effects of the United States tariffs and, invariably, internal instability. In principle, it has introduced a few measures over these two decades, but this has little impact on population growth in the country. Its population-saving measures, such as the maternal capital for women willing to have large families, could not remedy the demographic crisis. Worse, it has decreed to expel undocumented foreigners, 90% of the total illegal immigrants from the former Soviet republics. As of January 1, 2025, the population of Russia was estimated at 144.8 million, an Atlantic Council report says.
Contributing Factors
Since the Soviet collapse, Russia has been in demographic decline long before the war in Ukraine. Russians inevitably adore the one-child policy primarily due to harsh economic conditions, incapable of supporting families as the economy undergoes complex but consistent transformations, transiting from the Soviet’s centralized system to a free-market economy (privatization) combined with steady emigration of young professionals to Europe and the United States. An estimated 2.5 million Russians now live outside the Russian Federation. On the other side, Russia is strict on Europeans and Americans who live in Russia, estimated at 15,000. Despite Russia’s advocacy for the multipolar world, the Kremlin is seemingly bitter on foreigners. The post-Soviet political developments and economic resuscitation, as well as the observation of a ‘life-surviving culture’, have driven the youth elsewhere despite the enormous untapped endowed resources in the Russian Federation.
According to demographers, births continue to fall in Russian regions as the youth escape military conscriptions. Demographers say almost 40 per cent of Russian women of child-bearing age expressed economic insecurity and financial concerns in the nationwide survey held in 2023. Other explicit underlying factors contribute to the declining population. Last year, for instance, deaths outpaced births by more than half a million. Practical evidence shows that Russian society and family culture no longer encourage large families. In practical terms, none of these government interventions address the declining population.
Demographic Measures
In the past, Russia has taken a few steps toward reversing the population’s further decline. Reviewing the previous measures critically indicates a combination of negative and positive factors. Russian President Vladimir Putin has unreservedly discussed the demography situation with his executives, specifically with the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects and other appropriate state agencies and departments, tasking them to implement measures to increase population. At one point, during a meeting of the Presidium of the State Council held in 2024, Putin explained, quoting figures to show the trends of youth population growth, that there will be 8.3 million young people by 2030. Putin stressed that the forecasts for the development of young people in the country are “a landmark result of efforts in the field of demography.”
As far back in June 2021, at the United Russia Party’s congress, Putin called for efforts to reverse negative demography trends. “The situation in the demographic sphere is complex. At some point, due to several objective reasons, we are now facing a consistent demographic pitfall,” he noted in his speech, and then suggested that to reverse the negative trends, the authorities need to focus on serious goals, making efforts “to develop the economy and regions, the social sphere, healthcare, education and strengthen traditional values.”
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has also issued executive instructions relating to a long-term program of national development goals, including reducing poverty and turning the demographic situation around. He repeatedly drew attention to the fact that the problem with the birth rate in the country remains difficult, and to reverse it, additional measures in the field of demography are needed.
These several years, both Putin and Mishustin have mentioned providing monthly payments for children between the ages of three and seven years old and further payment of what is referred to as ‘the maternity capital program’, which was extended until the end of 2026 and the payment amount will grow to 616,617 rubles ($10,028). Despite all these measures over the years, Russia’s population has still not grown to the expected level. In the first place, Russia has a relatively high death rate, influenced by health issues and lifestyle factors. In the second place, the birth rate has been declining over the years, contributing to a natural decrease in population. Third, emigration, especially among young professionals and specialists, is due to a lust for better economic and living conditions outside the Russian Federation.
Moscow, the capital city of Russia, is currently under reconstruction. Alternatively, the city periphery (outskirts), the new micro-region where residential apartment blocks are undergoing construction, needs serious migrant labour. Moscow city mayor Sergey Sobyanin reiterated that the municipal administration needed 250,000 (a quarter of a million) to work on the construction sites (fields). In addition, many are required for tidying up the city. Sobyanin complained that there was a shortage of labour. St. Petersburg, the second largest city, and other major cities are constantly complaining and stuck with new construction projects.
Alternative Options
With the largest country area worldwide, Russia’s population is seriously staggering, with demography experts and researchers pegging the figure at 142 million. Thomas Malthus’s theory relating to demography, the correlation between the economic dogma and size of the territory, and the expected explosion is still far away in the case of Russia. Simply inapplicable here. Suffice to compare and explain that despite their limited living space, the Philippines and Japan have estimated populations of 120 million and 128 million people. India has not yet experienced a population explosion. The surface-level analysis above indicates that Russia should show some fairness in its actions regarding the current population, including, at least, integrating ‘foreigners’ from the former Soviet republics. Legalizing 1.5 million (the majority from former Soviet republics) and transferring them to the Arctic and Far East regions to boost employment and systematically engage this labour in the production sphere, an area of activity, is extremely hard for the Russian government. After all, Russia frequently reiterates that it is replacing the present global arrangement with a ‘multipolar’ world. Russia is not a segregated society. The United States annually augments its population by 50,000 through the U.S. Lottery system. In May 2025, it announced the latest results, tapping 50,000 worldwide. The current population of the United States was 380 million as of March 2025, more than twice that of Russia.
Logical Conclusion
The Arctic region, Siberia and the vast Far East are empty but, at the same time, are widely known as strategic regions. For several years, Russia has proposed numerous projects and initiatives to improve these regions’ habitation environment, emphasizing its importance for international cooperation. Russia’s policy to re-populate these places failed terribly. Even Russians were promised doubled income and land, but without positive results. The Far East, Siberia, and the Arctic regions remain exceptionally low in population.
On the other hand, Russia has tightened its policy on labour migration and consistently expelled foreign workers. Many questions are still persistent and have remained unanswered until today. Russia’s demographic crisis stems from low birth rates, high death rates, migration patterns, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. It is severely sensitive to access figures of fallen soldiers from the three-year Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Under the critical circumstance of declining population, Russia could still use the potential of foreigners and immigrants, combined with its vast, diverse resources and capital, to build sustainable industrial production capacity in the Far East, Siberia and Arctic regions and strengthen economic footprints with branded products similar to China around the world. It is time Russia follows China to raise significantly its economic influence rather than stand for a marginalized superpower status. Russia has to emerge as a recognizable brand.
Therefore, besides everything, the most essential factor here again is population and the economy. Many experts acknowledge in separate reports that the war in Ukraine, trade restrictions, and demographic challenges will continue to shape Russia’s economy and society. Insisting on Russia for Russians implies segregation, an attempt to create a segregated society in a multipolar world. President Vladimir Putin has to acknowledge the truthful and irreversible fact that a multicultural population is the main factor in Russia’s development. So what has to be done in the context of the ‘multipolar world’ and find deeper reasons for sustaining population integration? A well-coordinated and controlled ‘immigration’ could be one of the surest ways to allow population growth and comprehensive development. From the above discussions, under the current circumstances, controlled and regulated immigration could reverse Russia’s declining population, one distinctive factor that drives expected economic growth and ultimately supports Russia’s ambition for attaining superpower status in this new emerging multipolar world.
*Kester Kenn Klomegah has diverse work experience in policy research and business consultancy. His focused interest includes questions related to geopolitical changes, foreign relations, and economic development in Africa with key global powers. [IDN-InDepthNews]
Image: Map of Russia’s population density | Source: Wikipedia