Rebeca Grynspan widens her lead as the Security Council’s seventh straw poll leaves the decisive question of possible vetoes unanswered.
By Ramesh Jaura
BERLIN | 31 October 2026 (IDN) — Rebeca Grynspan has strengthened her claim to become the next United Nations Secretary-General, winning support from 11 of the Security Council’s 15 members in its latest informal ballot. Yet the Costa Rican economist remains short of the agreement that matters most: acceptance by all five powers able to block her appointment. Türkiye’s late nomination of veteran diplomat Feridun Sinirlioğlu has now added another possible route out of the deadlock.
The seventh straw poll, held on 30 October, gave Grynspan her strongest result so far. But the Council’s return to ballots that conceal whether opposition comes from permanent or elected members has made the outcome harder to interpret. A larger majority has emerged without establishing whether a potential veto has disappeared.
No date for an eighth straw poll had been publicly announced by the time of writing. PassBlue’s report on the latest round said the date remained to be determined. With António Guterres leaving office on 31 December, the next Secretary-General’s preparation time is steadily shrinking.
The Council has not published the tally. Reuters, citing two people close to the process, reported Grynspan’s 11 votes of encouragement and four of discouragement. PassBlue independently reported the same figures. These are corroborated accounts of a private ballot, rather than an official election result.
A lead with a missing answer
Argentina’s Rafael Grossi followed with nine votes encouraging his candidacy, four discouraging it and two expressing no opinion. Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett received eight, six and one respectively. Lana Nusseibeh, nominated by the United Arab Emirates on 21 October, placed fourth in her first poll, with seven encouraging votes, six discouraging votes and two expressing no opinion.
For Grynspan, the result represents a gain of two encouraging votes since the 16 October round. It establishes a clearer numerical advantage over her competitors. It does not establish that the permanent members have accepted her.
Under Article 97 of the UN Charter, the General Assembly appoints the Secretary-General on the Security Council’s recommendation. A formal Council recommendation requires at least nine affirmative votes and no veto from China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom or the United States.
The informal ballots help governments judge whether such a recommendation is possible. A discouraging vote signals opposition; it does not legally exercise a veto or permanently end a candidacy. Governments can change their positions as negotiations proceed.
That distinction matters particularly now. In the colour-coded poll on 16 October, two permanent members discouraged Grynspan. The latest ballot provides no way of knowing whether those objections remain. Her four negative votes could include permanent members, elected members, or both.
Why the ballot changed
The Council had introduced different-coloured ballot papers to distinguish permanent members’ positions from those of its ten elected members. On 30 October, it returned to papers that did not make that distinction.
Security Council Report described the discussions preceding the change in its 29 October account. Some members wanted to assess Nusseibeh’s support through the same preliminary method used for earlier candidates. Others preferred to retain colour-coded voting and move the process towards a decision.
The fairness argument was that a newcomer should have a preliminary test before possible permanent-member opposition was exposed. But the change also deprives the wider UN membership of information about whether the leaders are overcoming their most serious obstacles. It shows movement across the Council without revealing movement among the five governments able to prevent appointment.
One late entry tested, another arrives.
Nusseibeh’s fourth-place finish gives a first measure of support but no evidence that she has become the preferred alternative. Seven encouraging votes leave her below the nine needed for a recommendation; two members expressing no opinion leave room for further campaigning.
Her public remarks on 27 October also raised questions about her independence and Sudan. Rights advocates challenged her earlier defence of the UAE against allegations of support for the Rapid Support Forces. The UAE denies supporting the group.
Reuters reported that Nusseibeh promised to support UN fact-finding, accountability and transitional justice, and to make Sudan a priority. The secret ballot cannot establish whether the controversy influenced particular votes.
Hours after the poll, Türkiye formally nominated Sinirlioğlu, the Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and a former Turkish foreign minister and UN ambassador. Ankara said it had waited while the Council tested the Latin American and Caribbean candidates, but acted after concluding that the process had reached an impasse.
Sinirlioğlu’s vision statement, “Preserving Multilateralism and Building Bridges”, places conflict prevention, early warning and mediation at the centre of his programme. It calls for stronger cooperation with regional organisations and for a UN that is more agile, transparent, digitally capable, financially responsible and accountable. It also addresses governance of artificial intelligence, biotechnology, cybersecurity and space.
The programme speaks to competing constituencies. Permanent members inclined towards state sovereignty may welcome its stress on dialogue and regional ownership. Governments demanding administrative reform may find its emphasis on financial discipline attractive. But his reference to the Türkiye-UN Black Sea Grain Initiative as an example of successful diplomacy will also sharpen questions about how independently he would act from the government sponsoring him.
His arrival changes the political meaning of the seventh poll. Grynspan’s 11 votes remain the strongest numerical showing, but Council members now have another experienced male candidate from outside Latin America to consider. That tests both the regional expectation favouring Latin America and the campaign for the UN to appoint its first woman Secretary-General.
The cost of waiting
Richard Ponzio of the Stimson Center had already identified further late entrants as one path that could prolong the contest. Sinirlioğlu’s nomination has now turned that possibility into fact. Neither regional rotation nor the widespread wish to appoint the first woman Secretary-General removes the permanent members’ power to reject a nominee.
Delay has consequences beyond the campaign. The successor must prepare to lead an organisation facing wars, financial pressure and difficult reform negotiations. A late appointment leaves less time to assemble a team and arrange a handover, while compressing the General Assembly’s consideration of the Council’s recommendation.
Grynspan’s stronger showing increases the political weight behind her candidacy. Eleven governments have signalled encouragement. The seventh poll leaves unanswered whether the remaining four include a government prepared to use its veto. (IDN-InDepthNews)