By Jonathan Power
LUND, Sweden | 16 April 2026 (IDN) — The widespread perception that China is, or soon will become, an aggressive and expansionist power is simply wrong. It is propaganda rather than fact—a kind of right-wing agitprop.
Far from being an aggressive power, China is fundamentally a defensive one, and long has been so (although one can argue that, over short periods, it has occasionally gone on the offensive).
Historically, China has been the one attacked and invaded—by Britain, France, the United States, and Japan. Today, it is too deeply integrated into the global economy and too financially entangled through its vast holdings of American and European bonds to behave anything but defensively.
Territorial Sensitivities and Strategic Encirclement
This does not mean China lacks ambitions. It seeks to bring Taiwan into the mainland’s fold. It will defend what it sees as its territorial integrity—including Tibet, Xinjiang, and disputed islands in the South and East China Seas.
While some Western politicians dispute these claims (except for those regarding Xinjiang), China believes it has a case for each. On maritime disputes, however, it would be wise for China to support arbitration under the court established by the Law of the Sea Treaty, as requested by the Philippines.
At the same time, China perceives the large deployment of the U.S. Navy near its waters, the Obama administration’s “pivot” to Asia, and Washington’s defence ties with neighbouring states as direct challenges to its sovereignty. From Beijing’s perspective, this amounts to encirclement.
Mutual Interdependence and Misunderstanding
Yet, even if U.S. policies are mistaken, the United States, the European Union, and Japan have contributed significantly to China’s modernisation.
Until the arrival of President Donald Trump, Western markets remained largely open to Chinese goods despite domestic resistance. Capital, technology, and expertise flowed freely. Taiwan also played a significant role. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese students studied at Western universities, and Chinese professionals were trained in science, law, and technology.
Even amid Trump’s trade tensions, proposed tariffs were softened.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has acted as a stabilising force in the region—discouraging Japanese historical revisionism and excessive rearmament, while cautioning pro-independence voices in Taiwan against escalating rhetoric.
A New Concert of Powers for the 21st Century.
In the perceptive book The China Choice, Hugh White argues for the creation of a new “Concert” of powers, drawing inspiration from the post-1815 European settlement following the Napoleonic Wars.
At that time, Europe’s major powers agreed that none would seek dominance; if one did, the others would unite to prevent it. This arrangement endured for nearly a Century. During conflicts, Europe avoided a continent-wide war until 1914, when miscalculation and poor leadership led to catastrophe.
We still live with the consequences of that collapse. World War I gave rise to both Lenin and Hitler.
The Concert system was not idealistic; it was rooted in self-interest. The major powers recognised that the recognition of hegemony outweighed the benefits. Unchecked rivalry would harm all.
Unlike a simple balance of power, a Concert requires a shared commitment not to seek primacy within a strategic system. Balances of power can—and do—collapse, as they did in 1914. The same risk exists today in U.S.-China relations.
The League of Nations and later the United Nations were attempts to revive this Concert principle. The UN Security Council itself was modelled on it. However, the Cold War replaced cooperation with a nuclear-backed balance of power, limiting its potential.
The Opportunity Before China and the United States
A 21st-century Concert in Asia would involve China, Japan, India, and the United States. Crucially, all must accept one another as equals—with equal rights and responsibilities.
The United States would need to scale back its military posture in Asia—not only to accommodate China but also to respect the interests of other regional powers. In return, China would need to renounce any future ambition to dominate Asia.
Such ambitions may not exist today, but they could emerge in future generations unless preempted by a cooperative framework.
A Concert is possible. The real question is whether leaders will seize the moment.
When Donald Trump travels to China on May 11, the two heavyweights will have an opportunity to explore such an idea. It is an opportunity worth taking. [IDN-InDepthNews]
Copyright: Jonathan Power