World’s Largest Regional Security Organization Launches New Initiative

LONDON | 24 August 2024 (IDN) — The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is the world’s largest regional security organization, with 57 participating states in Europe, Asia, and North America.

This year, the OSCE launched a new initiative—The Expert Networks on the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)—to inject new ideas and insights into the organization’s policy ecosystem. The ELN is delighted to be one of the Core Partners and is conducting research on the OSCE’s toolkit and how it could be used under different future scenarios for European security.

Last month, we convened the first in a series of workshops between multinational experts to explore the historical, current, and future role of the OSCE and its toolbox in maintaining and strengthening European security architecture.

Workshop report: The OSCE and its role in strengthening European security architecture

Over its 50-year history, the OSCE has evolved through various phases, from its early days during the Cold War to its post-Cold War “Golden Age” and now to its current challenges amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Consensus-based organization

Over the past ten years, this consensus-based organization has been weakened significantly by the growing political divergences among its membership and, above all, by the deep breach in trust between Russia and the rest of Europe, precipitated by Russia’s 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukraine.

Nevertheless, key OSCE processes and field programmes such as electoral monitoring, crisis management on the ground, human rights advocacy, and post-conflict normalisation remain important tools in shoring up European security. The continued existence of a forum for dialogue between Russia and the rest of Europe may also prove valuable in the future, even if its current functioning is limited.

Finland’s upcoming Chairpersonship in 2025 marks the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act, a reminder that cooperation and dialogue were possible even amid the ideological divergences of the Cold War. The chairpersonship will aim to reinforce the common values captured by Helsinki – to the extent possible, given today’s ideological divergences.

Looking to the future, the discussion found that the OSCE’s role will continue to be profoundly affected by the future trajectory of Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukraine.

Outcome

Drawing on previous ELN work on scenarios for the future of European security under different war outcomes, the participants found that:

• In a scenario where the war precipitated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains prolonged, but the wider Russia-NATO conflict is contained, the OSCE could play a significant role in addressing the human dimension of the conflict, particularly through humanitarian efforts, including assistance for those living in occupied territories.
• In a scenario involving creeping escalation between Russia and Western countries, the OSCE’s primary focus would be on reducing risks and managing tensions between Russia, Ukraine, and their respective allies. By utilising processes like the Moscow Mechanism, the OSCE could ensure transparency in prisoner-of-war treatment and collect data on war crimes.
• In a scenario of massive escalation, where there could be direct conflict between Russia and NATO countries, the OSCE’s influence would become extremely limited. Despite potential declines in funding and relevance, the OSCE’s diverse membership would keep the organisation on life-support as a crucial communication channel during and potentially after the conflict.
• In scenarios where Russia and Ukraine enter negotiations, the OSCE could potentially play an important role. The organization’s capabilities and limitations need to be well understood: as an organization of member states, including Russia and Ukraine, it would not realistically be able to kickstart or mediate in ceasefire or peace negotiations. However, if Ukraine, Russia, and other supporting states did embark on talks at some point in the future, the OSCE could provide technical advice and capacity to implement a future agreement, for instance, in monitoring any ceasefire.

Looking ahead, the OSCE’s extensive experience in post-conflict aid and its focus on human security dimensions, like arms control, gender issues, and human rights, positions it well for a significant role in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction and rebuilding of human security, including in disarmament, demobilisation and rehabilitation, and tackling the proliferation of small arms and light weapons.

The OSCE’s future relevance may lie in its ability to act as a bridge between NATO’s hard security guarantees and its own soft security measures. Additionally, the OSCE’s diverse membership could make it a unique platform for dialogue between the West and Russia.

Given the anticipated insecurities and instabilities of the next 10–15 years, including the modernisation of nuclear arsenals and the impact of emerging technologies, the OSCE’s most impactful period may still lie ahead. Its varied toolbox of mechanisms and processes, combined with its unique membership dynamics, could position the OSCE as a crucial player in the future of European and global security architecture.

https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/report/workshop-report-the-osce-and-its-role-in-strengthening-european-security-architecture/

*Jane Kinninmont is Policy and Impact Director, European Leadership Network (ELN); Maria Branea is Research and Administrative Assistant. [IDN-InDepthNews]

Photo: Flags with the English, German and Russian abbreviations for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe in front of the Hofburg Congress Centre in Vienna on 10 May 2004.