Israeli Settler Colonialism and Expansionism Threaten an All-Out War
By Anuradha Chenoy*
This article was published in Economic&Political Weekly (Vol. 59, Issue No. 37, 14 Sep. 2024 2024) and is being republished with the author‘s permission.
NEW DELHI | 14 September 2024 (IDN) — There is a fault line under Israel that promises to crack open into an all-out regional war in West Asia. That epicentre is Israel’s never-ending dual project of settler colonialism and expansionism. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leading this plan while provoking escalation. The intention here is to draw the United States (US) into Israel’s dual agenda. But the complexities of a West Asian war will have unintended consequences and can spin out of control.
Part one of the Netanyahu plan is to extend settler colonialism that seeks to permanently displace the Palestinian population and take over their land. The ongoing war and genocide in Gaza, which accelerated after the Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023, and has left 41,000 dead and 95,000 injured, has now been extended to the West Bank.
Part two of Israel’s plan is expansionism, as proclaimed by Netanyahu in his speech to the United Nations (UN) on 22 September 2023, where he displayed a map of Israel claiming all territories of mandatory Palestine as well as parts of Lebanon and Syria as the “New Middle East.” This claim has insulted the foundational principles of the UN. The International Court of Justice on 19 June 2024 ruled Israel’s occupation of the Gaza Strip and West Bank, including East Jerusalem unlawful.
“Axis of Resistance”
Regionally, Israel is taking on the groups called the “Axis of Resistance” that support the Palestinian cause. This “Axis” comprises the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Ansarallah (Houthis) in Yemen, and militia factions within Syria and Iraq. Iran supports Hezbollah and other militia factions, commonly referred to as proxies of Iran. Israel considers these as an existential threat and wants a military escalation on all fronts.
While Israel’s annihilation drive against Hamas accompanied by mass killings, starvations, and the all-round destruction of Gaza continues, since 27 August, Israel has begun to militarily target the West Bank as well, killing and displacing Palestinians there. It was reported on 28 August 2024 that Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz claimed that the “temporary evacuation” of several cities in the West Bank was needed for counterterror operations against the “Islamic-Iranian terrorist infrastructures.”
Reminiscent of the Gaza genocide, Katz has further stated that “This is a war for everything, and we must win it.” So, the settler colonial policies of forced displacement continue as Israel covets more Palestinian land and forces the Palestinians out, aiming to make them refugees in Jordan and Egypt, which will destabilise and cause anxiety in both these countries.
Lebanon and its main force, the Hezbollah
On Israel’s northern border, there has been an escalation with Lebanon and its main force, the Hezbollah. On 31 July, Israel targeted and killed Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr. Hezbollah’s reprisal of drone and rocket attacks on Israeli military intelligence facilities came a month later on 24 August. The Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, explained that they hoped for an Israeli ceasefire in Gaza. Israel retaliated by striking Lebanese targets. Both sides claimed limited damage while the conflict spirals out of control.
Lebanon and Israel have a history of wars, with the last ones being in 2000 and 2006. Israel withdrew from South Lebanon but holds Lebanese territories of Shebaa Farms near Golan Heights that were seized by Israel from Syria in the 1967 war. This relative quiet front flared up after Hezbollah declared support for Hamas after the events of October 2023. Since then, Israelis living on this border have been evacuated while the situation remains tense as a low-intensity war continues.
Iran: Israel’s main target
Iran remains Israel’s main target. Netanyahu has blamed Iran as the root cause of Israel’s insecurities and called for its decimation. However, Israel cannot sustain an all-out conflict with Iran without the full support of the US, including physical operations. The US has imposed heavy sanctions on Iran and backs Israel with weapons and funding, but is also cautious about US boots on the ground. Netanyahu’s plan seems to be to provoke Iran into attacking Israel and thus make itself a victim, forcing the US to assist its proxy in West Asia. However, as the US election draws near, this plan has not worked so far.
In April 2024, Israel first provoked Iran with a missile strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria killing 16 people, including eight officials of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Iranian response that was considered to be a “restrained retaliation” was confined to drone swarms that targeted Israeli military installations. These were repelled by the combined strength of the air force of the five nations, US, United Kingdom, France, and Israel with support from Jordan.
Since then, Israel has continued to provoke Iran with the murder of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas political chief and a negotiator in the ongoing ceasefire talks. Haniyeh was murdered in his hotel room in Tehran, where he was attending the swearing-in of the newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on 31 July 2024. This murder crossed a line as it violated Iran’s sovereignty. Iran has promised retaliation on its own terms.
The Yemen front
Towards Israel’s south, on the Yemen front, the Houthis-Ansarallah have been targeting ships across the strategic narrow straits of the Hormuz of the Red Sea, with the aim of debilitating Israel’s ability to conduct operations in Gaza. This de facto government of the Houthis in Yemen has battled a Saudi-led US-supported coalition since 2015. The US has tried to build a coalition against the Houthis and offered concessions to Yemen if they stop obstructing international shipping. On 20 July, Israel bombed Yemen’s main port, however, this has not deterred Yemen from targeting ships in retaliation and its continued support of the Palestinian cause.
Iraq and Syria
Tensions have escalated in Iraq and Syria as well, with synchronised missile attacks on Iraqi towns by Israel and US on 30 July, intended to assassinate leaders of the Islamic resistance. The governments of Iraq and Syria cannot afford another war, however, they exercise no control over militia groups that target US bases. The Iraqi Parliament has passed resolutions asking US coalition troops to exit, but the US has not complied yet. The US occupies a part of oil-rich Syria, while the Syrian Bashar al-Assad regime is supported by Russia. These countries have remained unstable and poor since US-led regime changes and bombings, whether in Iraq in 2003 or Syria since 2014.
To add to the geopolitical maelstrom, the US has crowded the Mediterranean with several fleets of aircraft carriers, with the aim of protecting US bases and Israel from any potential retaliation from Iran. At the same time, Greece, Cyprus, and Jordan have been enlisted as defence platforms.
Escalating internal dissent
As Netanyahu carries out his ruthless two-plan agenda, he also faces escalating internal dissent with huge demonstrations and trade union strikes that favour a ceasefire in exchange for the 100 hostages that are still held by Hamas. Netanyahu knows that a ceasefire could lead to his own ouster and imprisonment since he has been indicted for corruption and gets impunity only while he remains prime minister. Thus, he has stymied every attempt at a ceasefire despite nine visits by the US National Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken.
Netanyahu is walking a tightrope between external escalations, internal dissent, and international de-legitimation. People in West Asia and the world who favour peace despair as they witness the devastation of the Palestinian people. Moreover, any escalation comes with the risk that war shall spread across West Asia and beyond. De-escalation can come only with a ceasefire and inclusive peace negotiations. People in West Asia tell their geopolitical adversaries as they wait and watch: “You may have the watches, but we have the time.”
Original link: https://www.epw.in/journal/2024/37/comment/five-front-escalation-west-asia.html
*Prof. Anuradha Chenoy is Adjunct Professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs, Jindal Global University (Haryana, India). She retired as professor and dean of the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi after many years as an engaged scholar. She completed her studies with scholarships from the Indian Council for Social Science Research and Fulbright Fellowship, University of Columbia, New York. (1983-1985) She is actively engaged with the Asia Europe Peoples Forum and the International Peace Bureau. The author is grateful to Reiner Braun, Joseph Gerson, Walden Bello, Francis Daehoon Lee for discussions on NATO. [IDN-InDepthNews]
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