By Jan Servaes*
BRUSSELS | 7 October 2025 (IDN) — Thailand’s Constitutional Court removed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 39, the daughter of divisive but influential billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, from office. The Court ruled that she committed a “grave breach of ethics” in a leaked phone call with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, in which she made disparaging remarks about the Thai military and appeared deferential to Cambodian demands over border issues.
Attention shifted to her potential successors, with names circulating in political circles included Chaikasem Nitisiri of the Pheu Thai Party, Anutin Charnvirakul of Bhumjaithai, General Prayut Chan-o-cha and Pirapan Salirathavipak of Ruam Thai Sang Chart, and Jurin Laksanawisit of the Democrat Party, KhaoSod and ฐานเศรษฐกิจ reported. After a lot of political drama, both before and behind the scenes, Anutin Charnvirakul, the leader of the Bhumjaithai Party since 2012, was sworn in on September 24 as the new Prime Minister.
Thaksin’s return
Thaksin Shinawatra fled the country in 2008 and returned to Thailand on 22 August 2023 after some 15 years in exile. He faced convictions on corruption and abuse‑of‑power charges. Authorities initially sentenced him to eight years, but upon his return he was swiftly transferred to the Police General Hospital, where he stayed for roughly six months, citing health issues.
While in hospital custody, Thaksin received a royal pardon that reduced his eight-year term to one year, and he was released on parole in February 2024 after serving half that time. His early release appeared to resolve his legal issues – until a Supreme Court ruling against that outcome.
That not everyone within the conservative elite was happy about Thaksin’s return, became obvious when he got accused of violating royal defamation laws during an interview he gave in Seoul in 2015.
On September 9, the Thai Supreme Court found that the 76-year-old Thaksin’s extended hospital stay had been medically unnecessary and could not be counted as time served. Therefore, his prior six-month stay in a VIP Police hospital ward did not count as time served. He was ordered to return to prison the same day.
He formally petitioned for a royal pardon to reduce his one-year prison term, his lawyer confirmed on September 29. Thaksin was originally sentenced to eight years for abuse of power and conflicts of interest during his 2001–2006 premiership, but the sentence was commuted to one year by the king. Under Thai law, all inmates who have exhausted their legal proceedings may seek royal clemency, which can shorten or waive sentences.
Since his incarceration, Thaksin has been assigned light prison duties. The Department of Corrections confirmed that he volunteered to contribute to public service and is currently tasked with supervising drain-cleaning work outside Bangkok’s Klongprem Central Prison. His daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra — herself ousted as prime minister in August after an ethics ruling — visited him and confirmed his new assignment. The arrangement follows a 2023 directive regulating inmate labour outside prison grounds.
At the same time, Thaksin continues to face legal uncertainty. On August 22, the Criminal Court acquitted him in a lese-majeste case under Section 112 of the Penal Code, which criminalizes insults to the monarchy. A special panel of the Attorney General’s Office voted 7–2 against appealing the acquittal, but the final decision rests with the Attorney General. Since current AG Phairach Pornsomboonsiri is due to retire on September 30, his successor Itthiphon Kaewthip is expected to decide whether to follow the panel’s recommendation before the October 22 appeal deadline.
New directions?
The new Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, sworn in on September 24, laid out his government’s policy direction in Parliament on September 29, with a strong focus on tourism recovery, economic reform, and regional diplomacy. Anutin said restoring tourist confidence and tackling scams that target visitors were top priorities, alongside promoting domestic travel. He also stressed the need for a peaceful resolution to tensions with Cambodia and pledged to improve Thailand’s international image through active foreign policy and initiatives in the troubled southern provinces.
Anutin confirmed that parliament will be dissolved by January 2026 and general elections to be held between March and early April, with a new government expected to be sworn in by mid-2026.
Anutin’s rise was made possible by support from the opposition-core People’s Party (PP), which conditioned its backing on a clear timeline for dissolution and a referendum on constitutional reform. According to the roadmap, election results will be certified by late April 2026, followed by the selection of a parliamentary speaker and coalition-building in May, with a new cabinet taking office by July. The government has presented this sequence as a guarantee of stability and transparency in the transition.
In his policy statement Anutin set priorities across four areas: economic recovery, security, disaster preparedness, and social measures. He pledged to tackle the cost of living with subsidies on energy, water, transport, and tolls, while supporting farmers and small traders. Economic reforms will include regulatory streamlining, capital market incentives such as potential dividend tax exemptions for long-term investors, and infrastructure investment in transport, energy, and digital services.
On security and foreign policy, Anutin emphasized pursuing a peaceful resolution to the border conflict with Cambodia, boosting international investor confidence, and addressing unrest in Thailand’s southern provinces. As many before him, his administration also pledged to suppress corruption and illegal gambling, while promising stronger disaster-response systems and environmental protections.
The Thai public remains divided.
Public opinion surveys show that while Anutin has consolidated authority in parliament, voters remain divided. A recent poll by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) found 27.3 percent of respondents undecided on their preferred prime minister. People’s Party (PP) leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut led with 22.8 percent support, narrowly ahead of Anutin at 20.4 percent. On party preferences, PP was the clear leader with 33.1 percent, followed by Pheu Thai at 14.0 percent and Bhumjaithai at 13.2 percent.
On 3 October 2025, former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, reflecting on two years of governance under the Pheu Thai-led administration, released a 23-minute video entitled “Pheu Thai Will Return”. She expressed confidence that the Pheu Thai Party will regain power while reaffirming its core mission of serving the people.
*Jan Servaes (PhD) was UNESCO Chair in Communication for Sustainable Social Change. He has taught International Communication and Communication for Social Change in Australia, Belgium, China, Hong Kong, the United States, The Netherlands, and Thailand, in addition to several teaching stints at about 120 universities in 55 countries. [IDN-InDepthNews]
Photo Credit: MGR Online VDO, Wikipedia Commons