By Dr Palitha Kohona
Former Permanent Representative of Sri Lanka to the United Nations, and more recently, Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
COLOMBO, Sri Lanka | 6 November 2024 (IDN) — In the nineteenth century, the GREAT GAME was played by two global powers among the soaring peaks and stunning valleys of Afghanistan. Today a worryingly similar game is being played among the Monsoon drenched waves of the Indian Ocean crashing on the golden shores of Sri Lanka.
With a popular new president elected, and a new government likely to gain a majority in Parliament, Sri Lanka is also confronting a daunting time internationally. Despite his paucity of international exposure, the new president, Anura Kumara Dissanayaka (AKD), has been warmly welcomed by a range of global powers including India, China, and the US which also harbour undisguised strategic interests in the region and, naturally, in Sri Lanka.
While basking in the evident warmth of their initial welcome and carefully crafting balanced responses to their competing interests, the foreign policy priority of the newly elected authorities would be to manage the country’s international relations ensuring its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity while securing its rapid economic advancement. The critical international challenge for the new administration will be to steer the ship of state safely in a rocky ocean being churned by the ambitions and sensitivities of a minor assortment of major powers.
Added to the complexity of the challenge confronting Sri Lanka is the massive debt overhang of the country, the continued unsatisfactory inward flow of foreign exchange and investments and the enduring deficit of confidence in Sri Lanka as a trading partner and an investment destination. While inward tourism numbers are improving, they remain unimpressive compared with our competitors in the region. Trade figures remain non spectacular. These are problems inherited from past administrations. The satisfactory management of Sri Lanka’s foreign policy will have a critical impact on all these aspects, especially its sustained economic recovery, and the future of Sri Lanka as an independent sovereign state.
India, a Close Friend, a Sensitive Neighbour and the Major Regional Power.
Sri Lanka’s giant neighbour, India, must inevitably feature prominently in Sri Lanka’s foreign policy considerations. India is the dominant regional power with undisguised regional security interests and is increasingly assertive in the global arena. Its international clout is evident. India is now becoming more or less a part of the Western alliance aspiring to contain emerging China, including being a member of the QUAD. India could expect the Western group to support it in any military conflict or other related situation in the region involving China. The recent thawing of India-China relations following the agreement on border patrols bodes well for the two countries and the region.
However, India’s relations with many of its neighbours are speckled with numerous unresolved irritants and, for its part, will be keen to ensure enhanced and stable good relations with its strategically located neighbour to the south, sometimes referred to as the unsinkable aircraft carrier off India’s shore. Enhancing India’s level of trust and confidence in Sri Lanka as an equal, non-threatening sovereign partner would be critical. This will require consistent diplomatic and political effort.
Sri Lanka is not without its own sensitivities. The devastation caused by marauding South Indian armies in the distant past and the disastrous insertion of India in to the domestic conflict in the 1980s is embedded deeply in to the national psyche and cannot be lightly brushed aside. The regular illegal entry into Sri Lankan waters by Indian fishing vessels is a continuing irritation. While history is a powerful consideration, Sri Lanka’s leaders must be pragmatic in formulating its international relations. Contemporary relationships cannot be based on historical pain alone.
Sri Lanka has been and is eager to ascend the development ladder and booming India could provide ready economic opportunities. The economic relationship must be nurtured with sensitivity.
Currently, India is the main source of tourists and the major trading partner of Sri Lanka. However, India exports much more to Sri Lanka than vice versa. USD 6.59 billion against USD 1.12 billion in 2022. Major Indian companies have entered Sri Lanka as investors. (A future revision of the bilateral free trade agreement of 1998 should ensure better opportunities for Sri Lanka’s exporters and Sri Lanka does possess globally competitive industries. This would be a challenge for the Sri Lankan negotiators). India also provided over USD 4 billion Dollars in financing as Sri Lanka, mired in debt, suffered a credit crunch in 2022.
India’s economy is among the top five in the world with over USD 600 billion in reserves. While India’s economic and military strengths will continue to grow, its relations with its neighbours will pose a challenge. India prioritises its neighbourhood with its ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ opening up opportunities for Sri Lanka to benefit while providing assurances of its sensitivity to India’s strategic concerns. Elsewhere in the world, other smaller countries have very successfully developed mutually effective relations with large and powerful neighbours. New Zealand and Australia, Canada and the US, Germany and France immediately come to mind.
It may be appropriate to enhance the composition of the permanent high level consultative mechanism between the two countries which will provide opportunities to address bilateral irritants and ensure the reassurances that both require. President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s administration had established an ad hoc mechanism of this nature during the terrorist conflict, and it worked well.
It is in Sri Lankan’s own interest to create and maintain an environment that makes India comfortable with its neighbour while not giving rise to circumstances that pose strategic concerns to the latter. Trading land and assets for political approval, as has been the habit in the recent past, will not serve Sri Lanka’s long-term interests.
In addition to close links with the centre, it would be useful to develop strategic relations with influential regional entities, think tanks and non-governmental bodies. A comprehensive goodwill net must be spread at different levels. Cultural, social and informal contacts also would be part of this exercise.
The historical Buddhist link provides a non-threatening, informal but powerful bridge. Thousands of Sri Lankans go on pilgrimage to India every year. The intrinsic goodwill that exists could be channelled to strengthen the bridge of mutual understanding. However, it has been noticed that India is directing much of its bilateral assistance and investment funds to the Tamil north and to the Indian estate worker dominated highlands. This is an unfortunate approach as it could sow the seeds of more future ethnic divisions and extra territorial loyalties.
The Prime Minister of India has emphasized the historical Buddhist connections with South and Southeast Asia. His slogan has been “Look East. Act East”.
A close relationship with India should not mean subservience or a one-way approach dominated by gratuitous advice. The relationship, if it is to be comfortable and sustainable, must be one between two proud sovereigns. [IDN-InDepthNews]
Photo: Indian External Affairs Minister, Dr S. Jaishankar (left) shaking hands with Sri Lanka’s President Anura Kumara Dissanayake on visit to Sri Lanka on 4 October 2024. Source: NPP.
