By Lisa Vives, Global Information Network
NEW YORK, 15 May 2023 (IDN) — Since independence six decades earlier, through long stretches of military rule interrupted only by brief spells of democracy, Sudanese citizens began to dream of freedom. They had suffered enough.
But even amid the euphoria after the overthrow of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who had terrorized the country for 30 years, the seeds of today’s conflict already had been sown, theorize Washington Post reporter Katherine Houreld and Hafiz Haroun.
Fighting between two generals jockeying for power has killed at least 600 civilians—and probably far more—while sparking an exodus of tens of thousands of refugees, crippling aid operations that fed millions and threatening to set alight one of the world’s most unstable regions.
Three options have been discussed, according to the Washington Post reporters.
…that today’s conflict can be traced back to Bashir, who fostered rival paramilitary units and armed groups to head off potential coups;
… that fatal flaws in the civilian-military government set up with international backing after Bashir was deposed, concentrated power in the hands of the men with guns; and
…failure of the U.S. and other foreign powers to impose sanctions on the two generals when they jointly overthrew that government in 2021. Instead, foreign governments tried to coax the rival generals toward democratic reforms.
But in fact, there were obstacles to civilian rule from the beginning, insists Justin Lynch, co-author of the book “Sudan’s Unfinished Democracy.”
“If the international community did everything right, it’s still not clear that the revolution would have succeeded,” he said. “After the transitional constitution was signed, it was always clear the military were going to keep power.”
The military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) kept all the guns. Their business interests, including chunks of state-owned companies and private enterprises, gold mines and petroleum operations, remained untouched.
In the end, efforts by the U.S., Britain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (backed by the African Union, among others) were unable to get a power-sharing arrangement between the two generals. International powers, for their part, failed to provide support for citizen protestors, some of whom were wrongfully accused of capital crimes.
As the article continues, one reader summed up the writers’ views: “Two war lords, one country. What could possibly go wrong?” [IDN-InDepthNews]
Photo: EU experts were immediately deployed to South Sudan’s border with Sudan, to assess the situation and, with our humanitarian partners, organise the provision of aid. © European Union, 2023 (photographer: Olivier Beucher)
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