By David L. Phillips*
WASHINGTON DC | 21 August 2024 (IDN) — “Declare victory and go home” typically refers to US engagement in the Vietnam War. It is also relevant in other intractable conflicts, such as today’s war in Gaza. With the Gaza war entering its 11th month, Israel has achieved 90 percent of its military objectives. It should declare victory and transition from war-making to peacebuilding.
Israel’s intervention in Gaza is driven by overlapping incongruous objectives. Hostage families demand a deal freeing of hostages held by Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza’s dungeons and tunnels. Prime Minister Netanyahu is focused on a security solution to the hostage crisis aimed at degrading Hamas’ ability to launch an attack similar to October 7. Freeing the hostages and destroying Hamas are fundamentally divergent goals.
Mediators are concerned about a wider regional war Involving Iran and Hezbollah. Since Israel assassinated Hamas’ Ismael Haniya and Fuad Shukr, a Hezbollah commander, Israelis are on pins and needles bracing for a response.
Many Israelis see themselves as a “just people” who deplore human rights abuses committed in their name. Many support humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians, bystanders to armed conflict between the Israeli Dense Forces (IDF) and Hamas’ Qassam Brigades.
They recognize the importance of a reconstruction plan that includes arrangements for post-war governance that would free the Palestinian people from Hamas’ tyrannical rule and advance the goal of a two-state solution with Palestine and Israel living side by side in peace. Hamas’ military capabilities may be severely depleted, but it is a popular movement that won’t be easily defeated.
Let’s stock of events since the war started.
Gaza lies in ruin. Today Israeli forces can move unimpeded around Gaza. Israel has destroyed tunnels and supply routes linking Gaza and Egypt. The Philadelphia Corridor (Salah al Din), corridor land linking Gaza to the Mediterranean is under Israel’s control which Hamas’ ability to replenish its rockets and munitions. The tunnel network linking Gaza City in the north, Khan Yunus in central Gaza, and Rafah in the south has been largely destroyed.
According to IDF estimates, 14,000 Hamas combatants have been killed. The Hamas leadership has been targeted resulting in the deaths of Hamas leaders Muhammed Deif and Marwan Issa. Despite these targeted killings, Yahya Sinwar, the new “overall leader” of the movement, remains at-large and in hiding.
Palestinians with whom I’ve spoken blame Sinwar for Gaza’s misery. They know that Sinwar masterminded the attack on October 7, which invited Israel’s response. Many assign responsibility to Sinwar and the Shura Council for incurring Israel’s wrath and mismanaging the war.
Israel may be winning the war, but it needs an exit strategy. It does not want to occupy Gaza indefinitely. Israel already evacuated Gaza once and has no desire to return on a permanent basis. Many Israelis believe it is fruitless to continue bombing the ruined landscape of rubble that is Gaza today.
Few buildings are left standing. Moreover, Israel has damaged 90 percent of the tunnel infrastructure across Gaza. Though tunnels remain, Hamas is no longer capable of planning or executing an attack like October 7.
A more effective security approach would involve intelligence-based raids by IDF Special Forces targeting additional leadership and Hamas’ weapons infrastructure. An effective counterinsurgency strategy would involve less indiscriminate military action that considers measures to build the capacity of Palestinian civil society.
These efforts could be taken in tandem with donor countries in Europe and the Gulf States investing in peacebuilding. The focus would be on creating a new political system and providing services to Gaza’s inhabitants. Differentiating between Hamas and civil society is a necessary step for reconciliation.
It may never be possible for Israel to win the hearts and minds of the Palestinian people after ravaging Gaza. Virtually every family has been touched by tragedy during Israel’s military campaign that killed more than 40,000 people and displaced nearly two million. Many Palestinians have been displaced multiple times.
Israeli society has also been wounded by the events on October 7. The actions of Hamas have touched every Israeli, not just the hostage families. Only hardliners turn a blind eye to crimes committed in their name.
The Gaza War is not winnable on the battlefield. Continued violence exacerbates Palestinian suffering. It also undermines Israel’s moral authority and international reputation.
Israel should declare victory and go home. Only ending the war can create conditions for sustainable peace.
*Mr. David L. Phillips is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and an Associate Research Scholar at Oxford University. [IDN-InDepthNews]
Collage of pictures of Hamas from Brittanica and Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) from IDF Website.
