By Simone Galimberti*
KATHMANDU, Nepal | 16 March 2026 (IDN) — It is still too early to fully understand the consequences of the American adventurism in foreign policy.
Amid the ongoing geopolitical chaos surrounding the second Trump administration, it is easy to forget ASEAN and its claimed centrality.
The wider Middle East region is experiencing a consequential crisis following the illegal attack on Iran by parts of the USA and Israel. The knock-on effect is felt around the world, from Europe to Southeast Asia and beyond.
Europeans are unable to offer a coherent response. Any new geopolitical crisis highlights the inadequacy of the European Union’s current structure.
But what about Southeast Asia? Its centrality anchored on ASEAN is at risk. Finally, as I write this column, the bloc’s foreign ministers are holding a virtual meeting.
It was about time!
ASEAN Centrality Under Pressure
One thing is for sure: the narrative that the governments of Southeast Asia had carefully and ably shaped and cultivated about the essentiality and vitality of ASEAN is eroding, and there is a real risk that it might entirely crumble.
That’s why the years 2026 and 2027—with the Philippines chairmanship and that of Singapore, respectively—will be paramount for the bloc.
President Bongbong Marcos of the Philippines has an enormous responsibility to try his best to revitalize the bloc, building on some positive work achieved last year by Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar bin Ibrahim.
But we need to take note of the nature of ASEAN’s successes in 2025, and such reflection highlights a contradiction in the bloc’s prospects.
Diplomacy Without Influence?
What Malaysia achieved was, without a doubt, very important in highlighting the convening power of ASEAN.
Such a level of high engagement—for example, with the Gulf countries, with China, and through a successful second ASEAN Summit attended by the presidents of Brazil and the United States—should have confirmed and reinvigorated the centrality of the ASEAN project.
Yet if we delve deeper, if we look at the foundations of this compact of nations, the emerging scenario is much more concerning.
As other observers have noticed, it is one thing to attract leaders from around the world but quite another to matter and be taken seriously.
The essential question is: how much do other major powers consider ASEAN a key decision-maker?
A Crossroads for the Regional Bloc
For ASEAN to really matter in global affairs, its governance foundations must be rebuilt.
Yet it is unlikely to happen, even as the bloc approaches a crucial crossroads.
On one side lies the road toward tokenistic diplomacy and geopolitical irrelevance—an option that appears more appealing and convenient than the narrower, more difficult path toward an action-oriented ASEAN centrality in which the region’s citizens can finally claim a stake.
That’s why I imagine a speech by President Marcos at the start of his chairmanship, addressing not only Filipinos but citizens across Southeast Asia.
Rethinking ASEAN’s Decision-Making
“My fellow citizens of Southeast Asia. We have reached a juncture in which we need to make difficult choices.
On the one hand, we can envision a future of shared prosperity in which we not only implement the ASEAN Vision 2045 but also dare to go beyond it.
We, the people of Southeast Asia, have the skills, capacities and determination to create one of the most vibrant economic blocs in the world.
In many ways, we have already succeeded, but there are still too many gaps and loopholes, starting with growing inequalities.
To realise this vision, we will have to make trade-offs, beginning with introducing the ‘ASEAN minus X’ concept that Singapore unsuccessfully proposed several years ago.
This means moving away from unanimity and consensus in certain areas.
It means faster decision-making, advanced cooperation among us, and greater agility to respond to crises in a more united and cohesive fashion.”
Toward a Stronger ASEAN Community
“At the very minimum, we must begin reforming institutions that are too complex even for policymakers who are supposed to run them.
To start with, it is urgent to enhance our Secretariat in Jakarta and make it more autonomous and powerful. The Secretariat should become the engine of our common future.
In the medium and long term, I see two options.
The first is turning ASEAN into a strong economic community modelled on the European Economic Community, the predecessor of the European Union.
The second is moving beyond that vision toward deeper regional integration among countries willing to advance together.
To explore these possibilities, I will establish a panel of high-level experts and a People’s Forum of citizens. Their recommendations will guide our discussions.
Given the high stakes, I will also convene a third Leaders Summit in 2026 dedicated exclusively to the future of our community.
ASEAN must become a paragon in promoting international law, ensuring that no superpower can dictate to others.
The rules-based order from which we have benefited must be protected.
But to do so, we must change the way we work—becoming more inclusive and people-centred.
And let us remember: only with ambition can we navigate our future together. Long life and prosperity to all of Southeast Asia.”
*Simone Galimberti is a freelance columnist focusing on regional integration in Southeast Asia, human rights and development. [IDN-InDepthNews]