By Jonathan Power
LUND, Sweden | 8 April 2026 (IDN) — Over the last five years, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has regularly walked into the courtroom where he is being tried for corruption. In November last year, he unsuccessfully sought a presidential pardon.
He is difficult to read—his public mask only deepens the ambiguity. At rest, his intentions and personality remain inscrutable. On the most critical political issue of all—whether to support a two-state solution—he has at times expressed support, yet now rejects it. Instead, he appears committed to maintaining the status quo: expanding Jewish settlements on Palestinian land while denying meaningful political life to the occupied population.
But what his inner calculations are remains unclear.
The Demographic Reality Israel Cannot Ignore
Why can he not see that the status quo is not a viable political goal?
The first reason is demographic. Within less than a decade, Muslims are projected to form a majority in Israeli-controlled territory. By rejecting a two-state solution, Israel is effectively creating a single state encompassing both Jews and Arabs—while denying Palestinians in the West Bank the right to vote.
In effect, this risks replicating apartheid-era South Africa: a unitary state in which a minority attempts to rule over a disenfranchised majority through systemic inequality.
Lessons from South Africa’s Transformation
The only viable path to peace may lie in the precedent set by South Africa. Under President F. W. de Klerk, negotiations began with the African National Congress led by Nelson Mandela.
As de Klerk once explained, the decision was not driven primarily by international sanctions, but by the realization that South Africa was becoming unliveable for all its people. A sustainable future required a system in which the minority could live safely under majority rule.
That same realization now confronts Israel.
Rethinking Western Strategic Priorities
It is long overdue for the United States and Europe to make clear that preserving Israel as an exclusively Jewish state is no longer a strategic imperative to be defended at all costs—financially, politically, or militarily. Italy has already signalled this shift, and Sweden appears to be moving in that direction.
If this understanding takes hold among Israelis and the Jewish diaspora, it could open the way—as it did in South Africa—for meaningful negotiations with the Palestinians, including the possibility of elections within a unified democratic state.
For this to happen, however, the West must abandon its long-held assumption that the Middle East is of overriding strategic importance.
Decoupling the West from the Middle East Conflict
In reality, since the end of the Cold War, the Arab-Israeli conflict has become strategically marginal. Unlike the current tensions involving Iran, it has had little impact on global oil prices.
For decades, Western governments have accepted Israel’s claim that it faces an existential threat from a coalition of Arab states and Iran. Yet military capabilities across most Arab countries—aside from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—have declined significantly since 1973.
Historical misjudgments reinforce this point. In the 1990s, Saddam Hussein’s military was vastly overestimated; when war came, it collapsed quickly. The second Gulf War was justified by similarly flawed assumptions about weapons of mass destruction.
Even today, fears surrounding Iran and its allies—such as Hezbollah and Hamas—are often exaggerated. Their activities remain largely localized. Iran’s own record of international terrorism is limited, and its relationship with groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS has been marked more by hostility than cooperation.
A Call for a New Political Horizon
The West should therefore decouple itself from the Middle East—stepping back from both the Arab states, Israel, and Iran—and declare that it has no overriding strategic interest in the region.
Such a shift would create space for Israelis and Palestinians to confront their shared reality and responsibility. Whether through a two-state solution or a unified democratic state, the path to peace must ultimately be shaped by those who live there.
If mediation is needed, the United Nations has no shortage of experienced and capable negotiators.
Only when Israel can no longer rely unquestioningly on U.S. support will its leadership confront the necessity of compromise.
Forget the spectre of Iran’s supposed nuclear ambitions. It is the future of Palestine that demands the world’s urgent attention. [IDN-InDepthNews]
Copyright: Jonathan Power